[#China Covid Curated 2023 Prediction] - Tragedy. Sorry for this prediction, but with China finally grappling with its second COVID-19 crisis, the picture looks dire. An internal briefing from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reportedly estimated that between Dec. 1 and Dec. 20, 250 million people were infected, further confirming that the government lifting its zero-COVID policy on Dec. 7 was a hasty reaction to the failure of the containment system. The China CDC estimate includes roughly 37 million people who were infected last Tuesday alone. China’s health care system is already straining to cope due to years of underpreparedness and a focus on containment over treatment. Based on the omicron BA.2 subvariant’s 0.3 percent fatality rate, 250 million people infected means 750,000 likely deaths. At this rate of exponential growth, the first wave could hit 60 percent of the Chinese population by the end of January. That could mean 900 million infections—and 2.7 million deaths. Of course, much is unknown, and it’s possible that the strain currently spreading in China could be less lethal. We can only hope so. Friends in China have recounted stories about people contracting COVID-19 without having left their house, suggesting that it could be circulating through the centralized air systems of apartment buildings. A large number of deaths would have a huge psychological impact, especially when it comes to whether zero-COVID was worth it. Based on India’s experience with COVID-19, China could have had several million deaths in 2020 if the virus had run rampant. But abstract lives saved do nothing to alleviate the grief and pain of each loss. However, don’t expect a public political crisis in China. The impact of COVID-19 deaths has been surprisingly muted worldwide, even in countries with heavy losses. Furthermore, after 250 million infections, China has officially reported only eight deaths as of Dec. 23. Fear of public anger is one reason why China is clearly lying about the death toll, using a ridiculous methodology to calculate it, and avoiding covering the crisis in the media—even as obituary pages fill up. Even if people know the official figures aren’t real, keeping images of crisis off the TV screen may make it seem less immediate.