my take is, Xi was furious at the White Paper Protests, (how insubordinate of them!) and decided, fine, let's let Covid run wild and punish all the older and sick people, who aren't contributing much to Society anymore anyway. ☠ That would explain the suddenness of the about-face. 🤐

https://ssaurel.medium.com/xi-jinping-doesnt-know-what-to-do-after-the-failure-of-zero-covid-he-is-banking-on-herd-immunity-f1911a92d8d4
#China Covid Curated

Xi Jinping Doesn’t Know What to Do: After the Failure of Zero-COVID, He Is Banking on Herd Immunity…

China Covid Curated

my take is, Xi was furious at the White Paper Protests, (how insubordinate of them!) and decided, fine, let's let Covid run wild and punish all the older and sick people, who aren't contributing much to Society anymore anyway. ☠ That would explain the suddenness of the about-face. 🤐  https://ssaurel.medium.com/xi-jinping-doesnt-know-what-to-do-after-the-failure-of-zero-covid-he-is-banking-on-herd-immunity-f1911a92d8d4 #China Covid Curated

Sam Mendoza

The Chinese Communist Party’s rationalization of its dramatic 180-degree turn on Covid was evident in the so-called “Notice on the Further Optimization of Measures for the Prevention and Control of Covid-19,” published by the State Council on December 7. The word “optimization,” or youhua (优化), suggested the fine-tooling of existing measures, and “further” that such careful and professional modifications had already been happening. In fact, the updated policy — referred to also as the “New 10 Regulations” (新十条) — was nothing short of the wholesale rolling back of Xi Jinping’s “zero Covid” approach to battling the pandemic at home.
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/gzzcwj/202212/8278e7a7aee34e5bb378f0e0fc94e0f0.shtml


The Chinese Communist Party’s rationalization of its dramatic 180-degree turn on Covid was evident in the so-called “Notice on the Further Optimization of Measures for the Prevention and Control of Covid-19,” published by the State Council on December 7. The word “optimization,” or youhua (优化), suggested the fine-tooling of existing measures, and “further” that such careful and professional modifications had already been happening. In fact, the updated policy — referred to also as the “New 10 Regulations” (新十条) — was nothing short of the wholesale rolling back of Xi Jinping’s “zero Covid” approach to battling the pandemic at home. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/gzzcwj/202212/8278e7a7aee34e5bb378f0e0fc94e0f0.shtml

Bobby

“The government was very present in the Zero-Covid phase — now that people are getting infected, it’s not being helpful,” said Hanzhang Liu, an assistant professor at Pitzer College who specializes in Chinese politics. “It’s a very bad look. I don’t think this episode has done any favor to the government in terms of public support.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/china-masses-take-covid-fight-into-own-hands-as-xi-sits-back

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China did a Zero-Covid U-turn after the demonstrations but that doesn't mean they did the U-turn because of the demonstrations.

From Reuters: "COVID-19 infections were exploding in China well before the government's decision to abandon its strict "zero-COVID" policy, a World Health Organization director said on Wednesday, quashing suggestions that the sudden reversal caused a spike in cases."

Xi Jinping and the ruling communist party had already lost to the virus. That left them with two alternatives:
a) admit defeat (and totally loose face)
b) declare victory and reopen

They could have done a step-by-step reopening like Singapore but they hit the panic button and did a full throttle reopening at worst time of year, vaccination down to only 120.000/day and no stockpiled drugs. It's Wuhan 2020 all over again as if they learned nothing.

China did a Zero-Covid U-turn after the demonstrations but that doesn't mean they did the U-turn because of the demonstrations.  From Reuters: "COVID-19 infections were exploding in China well before the government's decision to abandon its strict "zero-COVID" policy, a World Health Organization director said on Wednesday, quashing suggestions that the sudden reversal caused a spike in cases."  Xi Jinping and the ruling communist party had already lost to the virus. That left them with two alternatives: a) admit defeat (and totally loose face) b) declare victory and reopen  They could have done a step-by-step reopening like Singapore but they hit the panic button and did a full throttle reopening at worst time of year, vaccination down to only 120.000/day and no stockpiled drugs. It's Wuhan 2020 all over again as if they learned nothing.

I don't buy this narrative, but it's very dangerous regardless.. Why? Because Covid mutations are endemic to it and Covid mutation possibilities fill a probability matrix. More contagious/ less lethal is one probability. If it happens the morbidity associated with SARS-CoV-2 becomes the common cold. More contagious/ as lethal the next. As contagious/ less lethal another. 

It’s a checkerboard. 

But the checkerboard also includes: More contagious/ more lethal. Then it becomes something akin to The Black Death.

Will it? The Law of Large Numbers is in play here. With 1.2 billion possibile mutations (each infected person becomes a mutation possibility) + pets + Wild animals, it’s all but certain to materialize; just a matter of when and where. It was already surmounting the Zero Covid lockdown policy anyway before Xi acceded to the inevitable. He just got himself and the Party out of the way of an inevitable crash.

I don't buy this narrative, but it's very dangerous regardless.. Why? Because Covid mutations are endemic to it and Covid mutation possibilities fill a probability matrix. More contagious/ less lethal is one probability. If it happens the morbidity associated with SARS-CoV-2 becomes the common cold. More contagious/ as lethal the next. As contagious/ less lethal another.   It’s a checkerboard.   But the checkerboard also includes: More contagious/ more lethal. Then it becomes something akin to The Black Death.  Will it? The Law of Large Numbers is in play here. With 1.2 billion possibile mutations (each infected person becomes a mutation possibility) + pets + Wild animals, it’s all but certain to materialize; just a matter of when and where. It was already surmounting the Zero Covid lockdown policy anyway before Xi acceded to the inevitable. He just got himself and the Party out of the way of an inevitable crash.

in other words, he’s letting the Chinese people stew in their own juice?  like - “They don’t want Zero Covid? OK. The People have spoken! They can have Covid …“. Essentially, he repeated Marie Amtoinette’s (supposed) “Let them eat cake … ” answer to reports of famine among the peasantry throughout France before the First French Revolution.

My read on the situation is that they're trying to get as many people infected as possible. They know the fever clinics will be overwhelmed, as will hospitals -so people will have to survive (or not) on their own. At the end of the process, they get an effectively immunized population and fewer people in fragile health (FWIW, reported T2DM prevalence in China is 9.1%, in the US, it's about 7.6% and about double that with 'pre-diabetes', probably similarly double in China).
One of the factors in reversing dynamic zero covid seems to be simply that it was no longer working on the Omicron variants (r0 in the 16-20 range so no surprise). Another was that the 'white paper' demonstrations were a set of massive super spreader events - and presented an opportunity to preserve CCP status.
They're looking to get the disaster over fast - something Machiavelli recommended to the prince he was advising (and we all had to read in HS), or to use a line from Macbeth: "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well / It were done quickly".

Sam Mendoza

A group of likeminded people in China Covid Curated are talking about this.